Curse

Cash · Jun 30, 2006, 05:28 AM // 05:28

yeah i bought 2500 tix and as of now, with a 999 lucky/276 unlucky record, im up 7 tickets from what i started. this title wont be near as expensive as i originally thought it would be- id say buy at least 250 tix and just go afk and see how the odds treat ya.

jaibas17 · Jun 30, 2006, 05:29 AM // 05:29

but on 9 rings I always lose fast tickets lol... no way i can make some winning here

Solar Light · Jun 30, 2006, 05:30 AM // 05:30

i gotten a slow decay, but ill leave my 14 stacks alone and se how it goes, lost perhaps two stacks so far... and got 1/10 lucky and 1/15 unlucky so far

Kijik Oni Hanryuu · Jun 30, 2006, 05:30 AM // 05:30

I dun get how you can go afk for the tix game, do you just stand on a ring and it keeps going and taking tix and stuff?

LiQuId StEeL · Jun 30, 2006, 05:35 AM // 05:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kijik Oni Hanryuu

I dun get how you can go afk for the tix game, do you just stand on a ring and it keeps going and taking tix and stuff?

Exactly. The game will keep playing (gaining/losing tickets the entire time) as long as you are on a circle.

1) Pick a circle.
2) Minimize GW.
3) Turn off Monitor.
4) Sleep.
5) YAY!

Yuo Can Do It! · Jun 30, 2006, 05:35 AM // 05:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kijik Oni Hanryuu

I dun get how you can go afk for the tix game, do you just stand on a ring and it keeps going and taking tix and stuff?

yes. As long as you are on the ring - the game counts you as a player

Cash · Jun 30, 2006, 05:36 AM // 05:36

yes, on the 2 tix to play game (rings of fortune), just pick a circle and stand there. get drunk, go afk, or whatever- just make sure to have a decent supply of tix.

Kijik Oni Hanryuu · Jun 30, 2006, 05:38 AM // 05:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by LiQuId StEeL

Exactly. The game will keep playing (gaining/losing tickets the entire time) as long as you are on a circle.

1) Pick a circle.
2) Minimize GW.
3) Turn off Monitor.
4) Sleep.
5) YAY!

ULTIMO LOL!! So howq does it work tho I heard something about getting "hit"? is someone throwing something at you? if so that's not very nice. Man I wish I could find this stuff out by maself but i only got Dial-up on a computer without GW installed and no GW cd to install X.X

jaibas17 · Jun 30, 2006, 05:39 AM // 05:39

1935 tickets won, 235 games lost, spent 2 tix, guess i can stay here all night, 8 tix remaining :P

Lafayette · Jun 30, 2006, 05:41 AM // 05:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinger314

Center

Center is 5/9 (56%) chance of winning. Mid-Corners is a 4/9 (44%) chance of winning. Corners is a 3/9 (33%) chance of winning.

Math is absolute.

Winning doesn't get you a title, getting tickets does.

If you do that math for that, then each position has an equal chance of receiving tickets. Centre wins more yes, but is awarded with less tickets on average per win. Corners win less, but average more per win. They net the same. As do the sides.

E.g.
Centre: (1/9 x 25 tickets) + (4/9 +15 tickets) + (4/9 x 0 tickets) = 9.444
Side: (1/9 x 40) + (3/9 x 15) + (5/9 x 0) = 9.444
Corner: (1/9 x 55) + (2/9 x 15) + (6/9 x 0) = 9.444
So on average one should be getting 9.444 tickets per round. With a cost of 10 tickets per round, that is a small net loss on average across players. Feel free to correct my maths if you find errors, but it seems all locations are fair in the reward of tickets - as it should be.

However, if you're also going for the Unlucky title then corners would be best, as that title does require losses and they have the highest chance. So in theory, equal chance among all positions for lucky title and highest chance in corners for unlucky title would imply corners are the best. Which is where I am standing now.

...

Up to 6,302 tickets won and 399 games lost at the moment.

Red · Jun 30, 2006, 05:45 AM // 05:45

THE MATHEMATICS OF NINE RINGS
FOR THE LESS MATHEMATICALLY INCLINED

edit: Lafayette, darn you for posting so fast while I was writing this up. I refuse to take this down, though, as I worked so hard on it ;_;

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Lucky title is pushed forward as you win tickets. However you win tickets.
In 9-ring, standing in the center ring gives you 25 per win. A side ring yields 40 per win, and 55 is the prize for the corner. No matter which ring you are in, if the ring next to you (to your side, front, or back--NOT diagonally) is the winning ring, you get 15 tickets.

Assuming that every ring has an equal chance of winning, then each 'full round' would have each of the nine rings winning once. In this square 3x3 arrangment, that means that all corners have the same chances of winning; and the sides have the same chance as each other.

Analysis of the 'full round' of 9 games

Corner = 55 for win, plus 15 when either of the two side rings near the corner wins.
55 + 15 + 15 = 85

Side = 40 for win, plus 15 when the center wins, and 15 for each of the two corner rings it's next to.
40 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 85

Center = 25 for win, plus 15 when any of the four side rings wins.
25 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 85

Thus, we arrive at the following conclusion: for the Lucky title, it makes no difference which ring you pick.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Unlucky title is pushed forward only when you get ZERO tickets. Absolute loss. Note: this means that if you win 15 tickets for being near the winning space, you will NOT get a loss to count towards your Unlucky title.

Using the same methodology as the above example, we can count how many times each ring will receive NO tickets. Remember, only zero tickets will count as a loss for the Unlucky title. The consolation prize of 15 tickets will not help you here.

Analysis of the 'full round' of 9 games

Corner - receives tickets when it, or either of the two side rings, wins
Loses - 6 (the other three corners, far two side rings, and the center)

Side - receives tickets with it, the center, or either nearby corner rings wins
Loses - 5 (far two corners, and other three sides)

Center - receives tickets with it, or any of the side rings, wins
Loses - 4 (any of the corners)

Conclusion: for the Unlucky title, the corner rings are your best bet.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Final conclusion: for titles, use the corner rings

Sidenote: In the Full Round, you will spend 90 tickets (10 tickets for each of 9 games) and win 85 no matter which ring you choose. Thus, every 9 games you would lose 5 tickets.

Statistics does not always = reality, so you could easily go in with 100 tickets and come out 500... but what this does mean is that, given enough time (say, all night long while you are afk), you will run out of tickets. Your best bet is to load up on tickets--but leave some spots empty, in case of a lucky streak!

~ Red

Asrial · Jun 30, 2006, 05:52 AM // 05:52

Can someone do the math on the 16 circle one?

Sweetest · Jun 30, 2006, 05:53 AM // 05:53

Code:

5/6/X/4/3/7/1/4/1/2/3/2
9/7/4/4/4/6/3/

8/9/7/4/x/6/3/8/2/5/6/6/
9/3/5/3/7/7/4/

8/8/2/1/4/8/6/6/2/2/3/9/
1/6/4/2/1/7/2/

5/6/3/7/1/3/8/2/3/9/6/1/
2/2/4/5/9/8/8/

5/1/5/2/8/4/7/3/2/3/9/1/
6/3/3/2/8/6/1/

7/6/5/7/6/3/7/6/6/3/8/7/
7/1/1/9/3/3/9

7/6/6/4/6/3/8/9/1/1/6/1/
6/7/3/8/8/2/6/


1= 15 / 11.45%
2= 15 / 11.45%
3= 20 / 15.26%
4= 12 / 9.16%
5= 8  / 6.10%
6= 22 / 16.79%
7= 15 / 11.45%
8= 14 / 10.68%
9= 10 / 7.63%


1 = 42 / 32.05%
2 = 58 / 44.27%
3 = 57 / 43.50%
4 = 50 / 38.16%
5 = 71 / 54.19%
6 = 60 / 45.79%
7 = 41 / 31.29%
8 = 47 / 35.87%
9 = 46 / 35.11%

1st set of percentage = % of landing on a square directly
2nd set of percentage = % of winning anything

im adding more data and will have an updated chart at 1000 recorded

Zinger314 · Jun 30, 2006, 05:55 AM // 05:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Asrial

Can someone do the math on the 16 circle one?

All areas pay out the same, so it doesn't matter. It's just slower.

However, do NOT take a corner, otherwise you have a lesser chance of winning.

Meanwhile...I wish I was as big of a math nerf as you all.

Asrial · Jun 30, 2006, 06:05 AM // 06:05

Well, I'm going to bed. I'll let you know my results in 7 1/2 hours

ChunkyMonkey · Jun 30, 2006, 06:09 AM // 06:09

Well, actually if you want both titles, then yes, take corners. You get the same number of tickets but you lose more often, hence accomplishing the goal of both titles the quickest

Red · Jun 30, 2006, 06:15 AM // 06:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinger314

All areas pay out the same, so it doesn't matter. It's just slower. However, do NOT take a corner, otherwise you have a lesser chance of winning.

I will not post my math, because the 16-ring one HAS no real math. Just pick a random ring and look--each ring has a 1/16 chance of winning for real, and 6/16 of being in the same row as a winner. For that reason, all rings are the same--7/16 of winning SOMETHING, and 9/16 for losing.

I will point out that the 9/16 rate of Unlucky is slower than the 9 ring's corner loss rate of 6/9.

9 ring in the corner = win

Zinger314 · Jun 30, 2006, 06:18 AM // 06:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redly

I will not post my math, because the 16-ring one HAS no real math. Just pick a random ring and look--each ring has a 1/16 chance of winning for real, and 6/16 of being in the same row as a winner. For that reason, all rings are the same--7/16 of winning SOMETHING, and 9/16 for losing.

I will point out that the 9/16 rate of Unlucky is slower than the 9 ring's corner loss rate of 6/9.

9 ring in the corner = win

Thinking about it...I guess you are right. Curses! Foiled again!

Mercury Angel · Jun 30, 2006, 06:39 AM // 06:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinger314

Center

Center is 5/9 (56%) chance of winning. Mid-Corners is a 4/9 (44%) chance of winning. Corners is a 3/9 (33%) chance of winning.

Math is absolute.

It would be if all the variables were the same. What you win is different for each circle.

However, run the averages when you use actual winnings.

Corner: 1 chance to win exact (55 tickets), 2 chances to win adjacent (15 tickets)

In 100 trials, on average, you'll win 611 tickets for getting the exact circle right, and 333 tickets for getting an adjacent circle. (55 * [1/9] + 15 * [2/9]). Or, 944 tickets won, having paid 1,000 to play.

For Middle-Edge circles, it's 444 tickets for getting the exact circle right, and 500 for adjacent, or... 944 tickets won, once again, and 1,000 to play.

For the center circle, it's 278 tickets for getting the exact circle right, and 666 tickets for adjacent. Once again, 944 won vs 1,000 paid. (

No matter what game you play, no matter what circle you choose... The odds always even out. And they're always to your disadvantage.

Since I'm on that topic, might as well show the math on the other game.

1/16 chance to win 12 tickets, no matter where you pick. (exact)
6/16 chance to win 3 tickets, no matter where you pick. (in a line)

You will get 75 tickets, on average, in 100 games for choosing the exact circle. You will get 112.5 tickets, on average for picking the circle in a line.

In total, you are likely to win 187.5 tickets in 100 games, while you pay 200. Or, 937.5 out of 1000 tickets paid.

In short, your best bet of all the games is to play Nine Circles and take a Corner circle. The payout is the same as the other circles in Nine Circles, the Nine Circles game just a tiny bit better than the 16 Circles game, in addition to being faster, AND, the corner has the highest LOSE rate.
You lose the most games, win the same amount of tickets, and win tickets fastest (as opposed to the slower-paced 16 circles game).

Edit: Note, this is assuming that all of the circles in all of the games have an equal chance of being landed on. (not the adjacent/line aspects, just the actual specific circle). If the random circle chooser program actually favours a specific circle, then the numbers are wrong.

Kijik Oni Hanryuu · Jun 30, 2006, 06:43 AM // 06:43

ZOMG *reads all the math posts* *brain explodes* X.X